HANK
MARDUKAS’ GAMES OF THE WEEK
I’m
going to try to submit a weekly column analyzing a handful of “Games of the
Week.” Due to the nature of our
league and the over-saturation of internet-related college football coverage,
I’m not going to bother with the obvious big games. You can find plenty of analysis on the website of your
choice. I’m going to focus on
games that, as a Tanneyhill manager, you should find interesting if only
because you drafted a team involved, or you spent an appropriate time researching
and therefore you should know the implications. Or maybe you’d just like to see more coverage of Boo
Jackson.
Not
BO Jackson.
I
will try to return the following week and revisit the analysis, if only to have
some sort of accountability for wasting your time.
I
know what you are thinking,
and
you should be ashamed of yourself.
The
opening week “off the radar” matchups are extremely compelling, if only because
recent history has shown a high probability of a Devastating Upset of Massive Proportions (henceforth
I will Phil Steele this with an acronym:
“DUMP”).
Appalachian State over Michigan, 2007 DUMP of the year; ECU over
Virginia Tech, 2008 DUMP of the year, both opening weekend (Hank’s note: you will recall that
Va. Tech lost the DUMP of the year and still went on to win the ACC. This is one reason that I’m excited
about the Bama – VT game, but I don’t think the outcome will have major
implications on the remainder of the season for either team. We know we will probably see a well-coached
defensive battle. The loser will
still have a great shot at playing for a conference championship, and neither
will tailspin into a death-spiral ala Clemson last year).
I
left my PS MAG VOL.15 at the draft, so I’m going largely off the cuff
here.
LaTech
@ Auburn. Auburn is a 12.5 point favorite after
not scoring that many points in any game last year. Probably not.
Whatever. Fine. La. Tech has been steadily improving
under Derrick Dooley, and I was not surprised to see Richard grab them in the
last round. Richard grabbing a
team coached by a Dooley was about as surprising as me drafting a team coached
by a Spurrier. Even so, this is a
highly defensible last-round pick that went to the Independence Bowl last year
and should be better this year.
There’s a chance this is the best team in the WAC outside of Boise
State. LaTech went into Miss.
State last year and drove back to Ruston with an win. Is Auburn demonstrably better than Mississippi State? Despite last year’s Hahn-approved 3-2
scorcher, the answer is probably, yes, at least as compared to last year’s
version of the Starkville Dawgs.
Gus Malzahn is the reason why, even though he doesn’t have the horses
yet. We don’t know what we’re
going to get out of Chizik this year, but at least he’s kept his mouth shut,
and not eating is the key to avoiding a DUMP. I would not expect an upset here, but there is definitely
DUMP potential.
You
can’t spell regret without e-a-r-s.
Western
Michigan @ Michigan. Michigan favored by 11. Tim Hiller could be the best pure QB in
college football outside of the Big 6 conferences. I say that with the utmost confidence of one who has read
something along those lines in multiple magazines. This Western Michigan team is substantially better than the
Toledo team that went into the big house last year and took a major DUMP. Normally I would fall back on the laws
of probability and say that there’s no way Michigan would be subject to
third-straight annual DUMP, but this week’s headlines can’t be helpful. Some of the current upperclassmen think
they’ve been working too hard. The
coach is being sued. The fan-base
seems to be rallying. This could
be good. Or not.
CMU
@ Arizona. Arizona favored by 13. Even some of your friends at work may know
the name Dan LeFevour due to his Tebow-sized (!) stat-fest two years ago. He had a little slump last year. Remember: after a huge freshman year,
Colt McCoy suffered a relative sophomore slump, only to come back the following
year and toss laser beams all over the Big-12. What does this mean for LaFevour? I have no idea.
Arizona lost a 7 year starting quarterback, Willie Tuitiama (sp?) and
probably will take a while to gel on offense. The defense should be good, but I need proof this year that
Mike Stoops is not the western version of Tommy Bowden. Think about it.
Lots
of teams took DUMPs on Tommy Bowden.
Buffalo
@ UTEP. UTEP favored by 5.5. Last year’s surprise MAC champion
versus this year’s popular C-USA west darkhorse. Buffalo is example #1 of why the Tanneyhill league has
gotten more difficult over the years.
7-8 years ago a MAC championship would have (unjustifiably) guaranteed
automatic mid-round consideration the following year in every division. Now, everyone but Richard recognized
that Drew Willy graduated (and that the starting workhorse back Starks went
down for the season a couple weeks ago) and that Buffalo won most of their
games on miracles, turnovers, and luck.
PS aficionados will recognize that the “Close Wins, Close Losses” stat
may come into play here, but Turner Gill is a good coach. You don’t win a bunch of close games
over and over again purely on luck, regardless of what Phil thinks. The problem with Buffalo isn’t that
last year’s luck will run out (it might) or that major senior leadership is
gone (it is), but that the rest of that MAC division is better. Ohio: Boo Jackson; Akron: Improved;
Temple: Al Golden. UTEP isn’t in
the MAC, so all of that is largely irrelevant for this game. However, Buffalo’s run into last year’s
“the SEC is racist for not hiring Turner Gill” spotlight began here with an
upset of UTEP at Buffalo. It was a
DUMP that probably went unnoticed (though Woody appropriately mocked my UTEP
pick right after that loss).
Trevor Vittatoe is good. He
remembers last year, and he is miner-angry. Mike Price is tired of being questioned about Pensacola
strippers. Strippers, like miners,
are very under-appreciated. No
DUMPING here.
Miner-Angry
Until
next week, stay regular.
~ Hank Mardukas